Sound Familiar?

Central Ho Chi Min City, Spring 2011

Some people compare Phnom Penh to what Bangkok was like 20 years ago. But if I was placing bets on the city's future, I would look toward Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. I have a hard time believing that Phnom Penh will ever boast a skyline crowded with office towers and five star hotels. Saigon's smattering of condo buildings and designer malls among the rows of shop-houses and French relics is a much more believable vision. When I visited Vietnam last year, both Vietnamese cities were buzzing with traffic jams, busloads of tourists, night markets and fancy cafés. I was particularly struck by the sunset view from the Hanoi's West Lake, complete with the blinking lights of dozens of skyscrapers under construction.

However, since returning to the region, I've come across several articles about Cambodia's neighbor to the east that range from circumspect to exasperated on the subject of the economy, particularly the effects of property speculation and cozy government-business relationships. I couldn't help but think of Phnom Penh, where green tarps and bamboo scaffolding are omnipresent. Large swaths of land just outside the city lie fallow, surrounded by thick concrete fences, waiting for the inexorable march of urban sprawl to reach them. Phnom Penh's Master Plan for 2020 estimates that the city will grow to over 3 million people by the end of the decade, expanding primarily to the north and west.